An Assessment of Dynamic Behavior in the U.S. Catfish Market: An Application of the Generalized Dynamic Rotterdam Model

The generalized dynamic Rotterdam model was used in estimating U.S. demand for disaggregated catfish. The overall goal was to examine habit persistence in consumption and to determine the adjustment process in demand. Results indicated that it took up to 1 month for catfish-product demand to fully adjust to changes in expenditures and prices. Additionally, habit persistence played a role in demand where present consumption of a given product was positively affected by past consumption of that product. Consequently, U.S. catfish demand was significantly more elastic in the long-run.catfish, demand, dynamics, partial adjustment, Rotterdam model, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, C51, Q11, Q13, Q17,

A METHOD FOR COMPARISON OF THE EFFICIENCY OF COUNTRIES WITH DISTINCT TECHNOLOGIES

We divide countries into two technology categories: developed and developing. Agricultural efficiency within each technology category was calculated. Cross-category efficiency measures were developed and combined with own-category measures to develop a technical difference index. Results indicate convergence of efficiency within both categories but divergence of efficiency between the two categories.Productivity Analysis,

Evaluating the Economic Impact of Countervailing Duties on United States Warm Water Shrimp Imports

Estimates of price and scale elasticities for U.S. consumed shrimp are derived using aggregate source country shrimp import data. It was assumed that supply was perfectly elastic and U.S. wholesalers determine the quantities imported from individual countries given the prices and preferences of U.S. consumers. Ex-ante analysis suggests that most countries levied with the countervailing duty experience declines in U.S. import demand while those countries not affected by the countervailing duty experience increases in import demand. Ex-post analysis shows the reverse to be true. Several countries impacted by the countervailing duty had increased import demand from the United States while Mexico, which was not affected by the countervailing duty, had decreased import demand. The results from aggregate level data suggest that imposing duties on specific companies within a country may not be effective if that company is not a monopoly producer or controls a significant share of the shrimp produced in that country.International Relations/Trade,

Modeling the Cattle Replacement Decisions

In this paper we evaluate the performance of a dynamic model of cattle replacement and culling decisions. We derive the price of cattle when it is treated as a unit of capital and evaluate various rates of adjustment of the cattle herd to determine the length of the cattle cycle. Replacement decision is modeled as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem where the breeding herd is viewed as a capital asset that is capable of producing two outputs: calves and culled cows. The own-price, replacement and interest rate elasticities calculated for both the short-run and long-run time-frames suggest fairly rapid adjustment rates. Tests of cycle length revealed a 14-year cattle cycle.Livestock Production/Industries,

U.S. Citrus Import Demand: Seasonality and Substitution

Citrus fruits make up one-fifth of all fresh fruit consumed in the United States. Given the increasing importance of imported citrus in the diet of American consumers, it is perhaps surprising that no import demand analysis of U.S. citrus has been conducted. Using quarterly U.S. import data for six citrus commodities, we employed a demand systems model and evaluated aspects of seasonality. The results suggest wide variations in price responses to different types of imported citrus. The average amplitude and phase shift suggest that all citrus fruits exhibit some seasonality in their imports, likely a result of peak harvesting schedules of exporters.Fresh citrus, oranges, limes, lemons, grapefruit, mandarins, import demand, seasonality, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Evaluating Trade Developments in Dairy Products

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/11/04.International Relations/Trade,

A JOINT LIVESTOCK-CROP MULTI-FACTOR RELATIVE PRODUCTIVITY APPROACH

An output distance function conditional on the expansion of a second output is presented. These distance functions are used to calculate distinct relative Total Factor Productivity (TFP) scores for two jointly produced products-livestock and crops for 27 countries. From these, TFP growth and direction of growth are calculated.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Market Integration for Shrimp and the Effect of Catastrophic Events

Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Results showed that a cointegrating relation exists between neighboring states, specifically between Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas. Cointegrating relations also exist between the Gulf States and the Pacific region, but not the Atlantic region, and the price of imported shrimp is cointegrated with each of the domestic shrimp price series. Finally, while Katrina had an effect on shrimp prices in Gulf States, the effect was not long lasting.catastrophic events, cointegration, market integration, seasonal unit-roots, spillover effects, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty, C13, Q11, Q13,

Levels or Differences in Meat Demand Specification

We estimated a wholesale demand system for beef, pork, lamb, chicken, and turkey using quarterly U.S. data and a dynamic, CBS system (Keller and Van Driel). The CBS system is a differential system, which means that it might be more appropriately applied in those situations where the data have unit roots. If there are unit roots, differencing the data can improve the properties of the estimates. If the data do not have unit roots, differencing the data might harm the properties of the estimates. We tested the specification of the model's error terms using state-space techniques. State-space units allow one to deal with roots on the unit circle without filtering the data (See Durbin and Koopman). The demand system has only four independent error terms. The state-space model we used could have decomposed these four independent error terms into four errors with unit roots and four with 0 roots. Adding state-space features to the model greatly improved its performance as measured by the likelihood ratio statistics. The estimates imply that the raw demand data have two unit roots and three 0 roots. Our mixed approach improves the properties of the estimates.Demand and Price Analysis,

The Impact of Domestic and Import Prices on U.S. Lamb Imports: A Production System Approach

As U.S. lamb imports increased relative to domestic production, and the relative share of chilled to frozen lamb imports increased, importers of chilled lamb have become less responsive to domestic and import prices, while the direct opposite is the case for frozen lamb imports. From 1990 to 2003, chilled lamb imports from Australia and New Zealand became less and less responsive to U.S. prices, and frozen imports became more responsive. Unconditional own-price elasticities also show that, over time, imports of chilled lamb became less responsive to import prices while frozen imports became more responsive to import prices.lamb, demand, imports, trade, import demand, production, International Relations/Trade,